From Counting Casualties to Counting Votes: Evidence from Mogadishu’s First Election in Six Decades

Abstract

For more than three decades, political authority in Mogadishu was shaped by violence, elite bargaining, and indirect governance, limiting citizens’ direct participation. In 25 December 2025, the city held its first direct local council elections in six decades, marking a critical shift in how political authority is exercised in a fragile context.

Objective: This study examines how citizens experienced and interpreted this electoral moment and whether elections can generate legitimacy despite political contestation.

Method: Using a mixed-methods approach, the study combines district-level electoral data from 16 districts with quantitative analysis examines participation, ballot validity, party competition, and representation, while semi-structured interviews conducted among voters, captures perceptions of security, trust, and the meaning of voting.

Finding: The findings show that, despite political disputes, elections were widely experienced as a transition from imposed authority to civic choice. Voters emphasized the significance of selecting representatives directly rather than through clan leaders or coercive actors. While participation and invalid ballot rates varied across districts, security conditions were broadly sufficient to enable open voting.  

The study contributes to debates on elections in fragile states by showing that elections can function as transitional institutions that normalize non-violent political competition and reframe political authority around citizen choice.